The AROUND(expected value, +/-) uncertainty takes in two parameters: expected value, and +/-.

AROUNDcalculates the likelihoods of values around the expected value. The closer the value is to the expected value, the more likely it is. Vice versa, the further away a value is to the expected value, the less likely it is.

AROUNDuses soft cutoff and assigns lower chance instead of impossibility to values far away from the expected value (even outside the +/- range).

Example: If I believe the expected value is likely to be around 5, give or take 2 in both directions, the uncertainty would be expressed as =AROUND(5, 2)