You've learned The Basics and explored “What Ifs”. Now, it’s time to delve into the real magic of what Evara offers!

1. Referencing the basics

• Recall the basic example where learned that the Smiths family consumed 8 liters of milk in the first week, which is more than the expected 5 liters.
• Intuitively, we want to adjust the model such that we would have predicted a larger amount. However, we only have one data point, so how do we do this without making an over- and/or under-correction? For example, what if the high consumption was just a fluke?

2. Adding the actuals

• With Evara, you now have the tools to precisely answer such questions.
• Just enter the amount consumed (e.g., 8 liters) in the relevant cell using the ACTUALmacro.

https://www.loom.com/share/f8c148176d6a4c23a9d30e494d6084b2?sid=3cea0bdb-cf34-4b1a-8cc6-e1f8d956f0fb

3. Making the adjustments - update your uncertainties and refine your scenarios

• Click "Run" in the Evara tab.
• You will see a progress bar indicating we are doing all the mathematics. Importantly, this process is mathematically rigorous and consistent with our model and ****the actual observed value.
• Notice how the assumption, the expected consumed milk, shift towards a larger value - as it should!

https://www.loom.com/share/74a6f856a95b41cf92203c5250fd75f6?sid=365b7b79-3d66-493c-906a-13ecbaae52d7

4. Dynamic adjustment of the entire workbook

• This isn't just about adjusting a single uncertainty. Your entire workbook updates.